What is the first step in Delphi technique?

The Delphi method can be termed a forecasting process framework wherein the main objective is to arrive at a group consensus. It involves filling up questionnaires by chosen experts. The expert group opines their views to an initiator or facilitator, then summarizes the gathered information into an understandable report.

• This procedure predicts the possibility and likelihood of an event happening.
• The initiator or facilitator collects opinions on a topic from an anonymous group of experts.
• Such a process may involve multiple iterations.
• Each iteration is performed after receiving coherent feedback from the previous step.
• The iterations are performed until a unanimous and common consensus is achieved from the chosen experts.
• The group provides their viewpoints, estimates, and assumptions to the facilitator at each step of the group discussion.
• After the end of the rounds, experts share their viewpoints and estimates within the group.

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Characteristics of Delphi Method

• Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey ideated the method.
• First introduced in the year 1950.
• The founding members were part of Rand Corporation.
• ‘Delphi’ is derived from the Greek name ‘Oracle of Delphi’.
• It helps get a mutual agreement towards a standard solution.
• This is regarded as an exploratory and detailed procedure.
• It can happen across the globe and involves collecting streamlined and structured information.
• The process remains anonymous, and the experts can share feedback without any discretions.
• The method was first tested in the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare.

How does this Delphi Method Forecast Work?

• The first step involves the selection and choosing of a facilitator. It is recommended to select a neutral person who remains unbiased throughout the process.
• Once a facilitator is decided, the second step is selecting the expert panel. The panel may include domain or subject matter experts working in the industry.
• The subject matter expert is regarded as an individual with critical insight and knowledge to solve problems.
• The third step involves a decision on the selection of a problem statement. The experts should then be informed on the selected topic to have sufficient time to gather needful points that they can share with the larger group and facilitator.
• The facilitator then shares the first set of questions through a comprehensive questionnaire.
• The facilitator collects the completed questionnaire from a larger group, assimilates common points, and removes irrelevant information.
• The facilitator then shares the second set of questions based on the responses received from the first lot to deep-dive into the problem.
• The facilitator repeats the above steps until a common consensus arrives and the final results are shared with the target group.
• The findings and results are analyzed further to determine the solutions and opportunities for the problem statement.

Examples of Delphi Method

• The Delphi technique has big applications in solving high-impact business projects and sensitive political issues. For high-impact projects to be successful, the project manager has to determine the probability of specific events that can occur and analyze how such events affect the projects. In such a scenario, the Delphi method plays an instrumental role in identifying the opportunities and risks related to a project.
• Similarly, this method plays a key role in formulating public policy by arriving at comprehensive solutions.

When is it Used?

• The Delphi method is used for research and forecasting problems whose solutions are not yet determined. This is used when there is no true answer for a problem statement and requires opinionated decision-making. The Delphi method doesn’t rely on one subject matter expert. Rather, it takes into account opinions from several subject matter experts.
• The Delphi method is a popular choice for forecasting when the anonymity of subject matter experts is required on difficult subjects or topics such as political significance. This method is used when there is a need to collect a large sample size, and it becomes difficult for face-to-face interactions to draw subjective inferences out of the chosen topic.

Advantages

• This method provides opportunities to come up and participate.
• It helps in the early detection of problems and solutions, which helps determine the alternative course of action.
• After each step and feedback, experts are provided with the opportunity to review their insights and opinions, which they can later change in the succeeding step.
• The participation by the experts stays anonymous.

Disadvantages

• It is time-consuming as the facilitator has to facilitate repetitive rounds of interviews to arrive at a common consensus.
• The process can become complex with increasing instances of multiple and repetitive rounds.
• The problem statement has to be transparent and clearly defined.
• The data collected and collated may have some biased estimates coming from experts themselves, and the facilitator may or may not catch such biases.
• There are high chances that the group dynamics may get manipulated to force an incorrect solution.

Conclusion

• The process of the Delphi method involves asking multiple rounds of questions to the target group of experts. They do so until they arrive at a common consensus. The process is exploratory and has a broad application in project management and the public domain.
• Such a method avoids difficult face-to-face interactions and helps solve common problems related to group dynamics. The process collects regular feedback at each step. The method, in short, helps in understanding the likelihood or probability of an event to happen or take place.

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