Como usar likely to compare

By Reuters Staff

A social media post claims that one is more likely to die of the common cold than COVID-19. This is not true.

Reuters Fact Check. REUTERS

The post reads: “I literally cannot deal with this corona virus BULLSHIT any more!!!! We are wasting our life for the fact that we could POTENTIALLY die from this virus yet there is more chance of dying from the common cold which WE ALL GET at some point !!” (here) .

According to a team of global health scientists and infection preventionists at the Meedan Digital Health Lab, a public health information hub that distills complex health and medical science, even though the vast majority of COVID-19 patients only experience mild or no symptoms, it is far more lethal than the common cold (here) .

“The common cold is generally not lethal, with some rare exceptions”, the Digital Health Lab explains. “The flu, which is deadlier than the common cold, killed 0.1% of the people who contracted it in 2019. It is still too early to discern accurate global death estimates for people who have contracted COVID-19, but estimates have ranged from 1% to 25% of all cases, depending on the country”.

The experts argue that a conservative death rate of 1% would therefore make COVID-19 at least 10 times as deadly as the flu, and therefore “significantly more lethal” than the common cold.

So far, there have been more than 900,000 deaths caused by the novel coronavirus, and more than 30 million confirmed cases worldwide (covid19.who.int/) .

Peter Barlow, professor of immunology and infection at Edinburgh Napier University, pointed out that the number of common colds a person catches each year indicates it has a lower mortality rate than COVID-19.

“Adults on average get a “common cold” about 3-4 times a year, kids get it anywhere between 6-10 times”, Barlow said.

Barlow said since over 50% of common colds are causes by a rhinovirus, if it had a similar or higher mortality rate as SARS-CoV-2 and caused multiple infections per year, there would be a “massive mortality” associated with the common cold. This, he concludes, is something “clearly we don’t see”. SARS-CoV-2 is the new coronavirus that causes the disease known as COVID-19.

VERDICT

False. You are not more likely to die of the common cold than COVID-19.

This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here .

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (brand name: Comirnaty) was granted full Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in August 2021 for people ages 16 and older. Before that, it was the first COVID-19 vaccine to receive FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) back in December 2020, after the company reported that its vaccine was highly effective at preventing symptomatic disease. This is a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine, which uses a relatively new technology. It must be stored in freezer-level temperatures, which can make it more difficult to distribute than some other vaccines.

Who can get it: Anyone ages 16 and older in the U.S. Children and teenagers ages 5 to 15 are eligible under an EUA.

Dosage: For the primary series: two shots, 21 days apart. Fully effective two weeks after the second shot. For some people older than 12, especially boys and men between ages 12 and 39, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests an eight-week interval between the two shots to reduce the risk of myocarditis, an uncommon side effect (see FDA warnings below).

Who can get the booster: Anyone who was inoculated with Pfizer-BioNTech for their (two-shot) primary vaccine series, and who is age 12 to 17 should get a Pfizer-BioNTech booster shot five months later, according to the CDC’s recommendations. If you are 18 or older, a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA booster is preferred in most situations. In addition, in March, the government approved the option of a second booster shot to be given at least four months after the first booster for adults 50 and older, giving people in that category the option of choosing a fourth shot.

If you are immunocompromised: Anyone 5 years and older who is moderately or severely immunocompromised should get an additional primary shot (or third dose) 28 days after the second shot. They will be eligible for the booster shot five months later. Teenagers ages 12-17 should only get the Pfizer-BioNTech booster; anyone 18 and older can choose a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna booster in most situations. Adults with certain immune deficiencies are also eligible for a second Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna booster; teenagers ages 12-17 must get this booster from Pfizer.

Possible side effects: Pain, redness, or swelling at the site where the shot was administered, and/or tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, or nausea throughout the rest of the body. If these side effects occur, they should go away in a few days. A few side effects are serious, but rare. These include anaphylaxis, a severe reaction that is treatable with epinephrine (the drug in Epipens®).

FDA warnings: The FDA added a warning label on the mRNA vaccines regarding serious (but rare) cases of inflammation of the heart muscle (myocarditis) and of the outer lining of the heart (pericarditis) in adolescents and young adults, more often occurring after the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. The inflammation, in most cases, gets better on its own without treatment.

How it works:  It uses mRNA technology, which is a new type of vaccine. It works by sending instructions to host cells in the body for making copies of a spike protein (like the spikes you see sticking out of the coronavirus in pictures). But our cells recognize that this protein doesn’t belong, and the immune system reacts by activating immune cells and producing antibodies. This will prompt the body to recognize and attack the real SARS CoV-2 spike protein if you become exposed to the actual virus.

How well it works: When Pfizer-BioNTech applied for FDA authorization for its vaccine in December 2020, its initial Phase 3 clinical data surpassed expectations with 95% efficacy, based on an independent analysis by the FDA. But data on real-world effectiveness for adults shows that the protection from the mRNA two-dose primary series wanes over time; however, a booster dose (for those who are eligible) brings the immune system back to robust levels.

How well it works  against variants: Scientists are still learning about how effective the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is against Omicron, which is the predominant variant in the U.S. Early this year, the CDC published data that showed the mRNA booster shots provide significant protection against hospitalization from Omicron, and can reduce the risk of going to the emergency room or urgent care clinic. Additional data from the CDC in February suggested that mRNA booster effectiveness against hospitalization and visits to emergency room or urgent care centers wanes after about four months. Recent data from the CDC and a study (not yet peer-reviewed) from the New York State Health Department showed that protection from coronavirus infection in children 5- to 11-years old waned over time, although the vaccine continued to offer protection against hospitalization and death, even during the Omicron surge.

Moderna

The FDA granted the Moderna vaccine (brand name: Spikevax) full approval for people 18 and older in January 2022, upgrading the vaccine’s EUA, which was granted in December 2020 (a week after Pfizer-BioNTech). Moderna uses the same mRNA technology as Pfizer-BioNTech and had a similarly high efficacy at preventing symptomatic disease when the companies applied for authorization; it also needs to be stored in freezer-level temperatures. 

Who can get it: Anyone ages 18 and older in the U.S.

Dosage: For the primary series: two shots, 28 days apart. Fully effective two weeks after the second shot. For some people older than 12, especially boys and men between ages 12 and 39, the CDC suggests an eight-week interval between the two shots to reduce the risk of myocarditis, an uncommon side effect (see FDA warnings below).

Who can get the booster: Anyone ages 18 or older should get a booster shot five months after their Moderna (two-shot) primary series. A Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA booster is preferred in most situations. In addition, in March, the government approved a second booster shot of one of the mRNA vaccines to be given at least four months after the first booster for adults 50 and older, giving people in that category the option of choosing a fourth shot. 

If you are immunocompromised: Anyone 18 and older who is moderately or severely immunocompromised should get an additional primary shot (or third dose) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine 28 days after their second Moderna shot. They will be eligible for a booster shot five months later and can choose either a Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech booster in most cases. Adults with certain immune deficiencies are also eligible for a second Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna booster; teenagers ages 12-17 must get this booster from Pfizer.

Possible side effects: The side effects are similar to Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine: Pain, redness, or swelling at the site where the shot was administered—and/or tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, or nausea throughout the rest of the body. If any of these side effects occur, they should go away in a few days. A few side effects are serious, but rare. These include anaphylaxis, a severe reaction that is treatable with epinephrine (the drug in Epipens®).

FDA warnings: The FDA placed a warning label on the Moderna vaccine regarding a “likely association” with reported cases of heart inflammation in young adults. This inflammation may occur in the heart muscle (myocarditis) or in the outer lining of the heart (pericarditis)—it more often occurs after the second dose of an mRNA vaccine. The inflammation, in most cases, gets better on its own without treatment.

How it works: Similar to the Pfizer vaccine, this is an mRNA vaccine that sends the body’s cells instructions for making a spike protein that will train the immune system to recognize it. The immune system will then attack the spike protein the next time it sees one (attached to the actual SARS CoV-2 virus).

How well it works: Moderna’s initial Phase 3 clinical data in December 2020 was similar to Pfizer-BioNTech’s—at that point, both vaccines showed about 95% efficacy.

How well it works on virus variants: Scientists are still learning about how effective the Moderna vaccine is against Omicron. Early this year, the CDC has published data that showed the mRNA booster shots provided significant protection against hospitalization from Omicron, and can reduce the risk of going to the emergency room or urgent care clinic. Additional data from the CDC in February suggested that mRNA booster effectiveness against hospitalization and visits to emergency room or urgent care centers wanes after about four months.

Johnson & Johnson

The FDA authorized Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine (brand name: Janssen) in February 2021. Unlike the first two vaccines, this is a carrier, or virus vector, vaccine, a type of vaccine that has been used before for the flu. A one-shot strategy made J&J’s vaccine easier to distribute and administer to people who found it the be the most convenient vaccine to get. But in the spring of 2021, concerns over rare blood clots associated with the vaccine prompted the government to put a pause on it, which was soon lifted. Then, in December the CDC again responded to those concerns by expressing a preference for the Pfizer and Moderna shots.

Who can get it: The one-shot primary series can be given to adults 18 and older in some situations, including if they’ve had a severe reaction after an mRNA vaccine dose or have a severe allergy to an ingredient in the other vaccines, if they would otherwise remain unvaccinated because of limited access to the other vaccines, or if they prefer the J&J shot despite safety concerns.

Who can get the booster: In most situations, everyone ages 18 or older should get a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine booster dose at least 2 months after a single J&J primary shot. In addition, all adults who completed a J&J primary vaccine and booster may receive a second booster from either Pfizer or Moderna. 

If you are immunocompromised: No additional primary shot is recommended at this time; a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna booster is recommended in most cases.

Dosage: Single shot. Fully effective two weeks after vaccination.

Possible side effects: Pain, redness, swelling in the arm where the shot was administered; tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, nausea throughout the rest of the body. If any of these side effects occur, they should go away in a few days.

FDA warnings: In July, the FDA attached a warning to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine after rare cases of the neurological disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome were reported in a small number of vaccination recipients. Most of the cases occurred within 42 days after vaccination.

In April 2021, the FDA added a warning label after ending a pause on the vaccine it had recommended “out of an abundance of caution” over an uncommon, but potentially fatal, blood clotting disorder that occurred in a small number of recipients. 

In December, the FDA updated its fact sheet on the shot to include information about the rare but serious blood clotting disorder called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) that was associated with the vaccine. Currently available evidence supports a causal relationship between blood clots in combination with low platelets and the J&J vaccine, but the FDA continues to find the known and potential benefits of the vaccine to outweigh the known and potential risks of COVID-19 in people ages 18 and older.

How it works: This is a carrier vaccine, which uses a different approach than the mRNA vaccines to instruct human cells to make the SARS CoV-2 spike protein. Scientists engineer a harmless adenovirus (a common virus that, when not inactivated, can cause colds, bronchitis, and other illnesses) as a shell to carry genetic code on the spike proteins to the cells (similar to a Trojan Horse). The shell and the code can’t make you sick, but once the code is inside the cells, the cells produce a spike protein to train the body’s immune system, which creates antibodies and memory cells to protect against an actual SARS-CoV-2 infection.

How well it works:  The data J&J submitted to the FDA in early 2021 when it applied for authorization for its vaccine showed 67% efficacy in preventing moderate to severe/critical disease by 14 days after vaccination—and 66% effective 28 days after vaccination.

How well it works on virus variants: At the end of 2021, J&J announced that preliminary study results from South Africa showed a J&J booster to be 85% effective against hospitalization at a time when Omicron was the dominant variant in that country. More data on the vaccine’s effectiveness against Omicron is forthcoming.

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